COVID-19 Set to Thwart Climate Change Adaptation While Aiding Mitigation

Our lives and social behaviours have been forced to change in response to an outbreak unlike any other in history. COVID-19 is dominating the media landscape but that does not belittle the gravity of other challenges we are facing. Rather, the high deaths recorded, jobs lost, and deepening inequalities (among others) are likely to trigger a spiral of problems. With climate change being one of the major challenges in the 21st century, we cannot help but take an early close look at what COVID-19 means with respect to climate change.

In clear terms, the net impact of COVID-19 on climate change is unclear as different sides of the coin are presented: positive for mitigation and negative for adaptation.

Covid-19 lockdowns contribute to decreased emissions

Although the negative impacts of COVID-19 are overwhleming, there are some brights spots such as climate change mitigation. Numerous researchers have reported lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during the lockdown period. Measures such as virtual communication and distance working have led to reduced travel for many workers and therefore reduced emissions. Compared to the mean 2019 level countries, on average, decreased carbon dioxide emissions by 26% in early April 2020[1]. Though such trends are hardly enough, they remain unprecedented in the short term.

COVID-19 undermines climate change adaptation efforts

As forecasted, COVID-19 is impacting climate change adaptation efforts both at the governmental and community level. In particular, adaptation and coping capacities of individuals have been eroded because most people are in survival mode with little hope for a quick turn-around. The poor have less food and in some instances hunger has set in; loss of jobs means lower income and standard of living among others. The situation as impacted by COVID-19 is dire: “121 million people to be pushed to the brink of starvation this year.”[2] Impacts from COVID-19 will affect almost all assets of individuals as vulnerability is assessed with the sustainable livelihood framework designed by the UK Department for International Development (DFID). These assets are crucial for climate change adaptation.

First and foremost, deaths experienced by families erodes their social capital (which is the most important for people living in poverty). The intimate relationships that serve as resources to draw on in seeking support from family members and community members is undermined. The death of a breadwinner means the security and support provided disappears, and adaptive capacity is weakened.

Currently, the capacity of government institutions to function optimally is also undermined, and thus adaptive capacity is reduced society-wide. Governments will find it difficult to provide relief to any climate related disaster that strikes during the pandemic. Physical capital such as telecommunication systems have been overwhelmed in some instances and financial capital such as income lost from COVID-19-related unemployment have added to the challenges. Diversion of funds to COVID-19 high priority activities have also resulted in many organizations being starved of needed budget supports to proceed with their adaptation projects, and many projects have been brought to a halt. All these instances impact the vulnerability of individuals and their adaptive capacity is reduced by COVID-19. This takes a heavy toll on climate change adaptation efforts.

 The Trade-off of Reduced Emissions vs. Stalled Climate Adaptation Efforts

While we are not certain if the benefits of a cleaner air and reduced emissions will be a fair trade-off for the curtailment of adaptation efforts during the lock-down, some trends are discernible and offer food for thought. The gains made in reduced emissions are likely to be short-lived while the reduction in adaptation efforts will last longer. It is clear that as the lockdown begins to ease off and the re-opening of economies begin, emissions will rise beyond normal and the air will become dirtier than before. China is experiencing high levels of air pollution and higher emissions as companies attempt to recover their lock-down revenue losses[3]. This is happening while the lost social capital experienced by families living in poverty has not rebounded. In essence, it’s safe to argue that the net impact of COVID-19 on climate change action is dependent on how well recovery packages are managed post lock-down. More environmentally friendly packages with restrictions on pollution and fossil fuel intensive industries which also reinforce individual capacities for coping with climate change will be good news.

Humanitarian organizations must assess the impact that risks associated with COVID-19 may have on their existing projects and adapt their activities. Certainly they will have to consider building strong social structures and ties in communities to clear any self-centered tendencies produce by isolation, discriminatory acts and above all make the healing process a collective one.

[1]Le Quéré, et al., (2020). “Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement” https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x

[2]Oxfam (2020). “The hunger virus: how COVID-19 is fuelling hunger in a hungry world” https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/hunger-virus-how-covid-19-fuelling-hunger-hungry-world?cid=aff_affwd_donate_id78888&awc=5991_1594480123_b8ef94e85b1a68abe8bfd923cfa006d4

[3]BETH GARDINER (2020). “Why COVID-19 will end up harming the environment” https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/06/why-covid-19-will-end-up-harming-the-environment/

[4]”The COVID-19 related traffic reduction and decreased air pollution in Europe” https://www.europeandataportal.eu/en/covid-19/stories/covid-19-related-traffic-reduction-and-decreased-air-pollution-europe